Historically, basin and petroleum system modeling has mainly focused on understanding the burial and thermal history of sedimentary rocks as well as related hydrocarbon generation from kerogen (sedimentary organic matter) in source rocks; much less studies treated hydrocarbon migration and accumulation in great detail, although it is of uttermost importance for petroleum exploration and production. New 2D and 3D basin models in different parts of the Persian Gulf indicate the variable complexity of hydrocarbon migration in this region. A complex migration pattern including sequential filling, spilling and refilling of the structures are assumed for the northern part of the basin, whereas in the southern part simple lateral migration over distances of hundreds of kilometers is reasonable. Besides geometry of the basin, tectonic evolution of structural highs and facies variations are the controlling parameters on the direction of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation in the northern part. While there is a presumably minor effects of the fault systems on the burial and thermal history, their role as hydrocarbon conduits and therefore controlling the hydrocarbon accumulation and geochemical properties are of great importance. The results provide key information on charge history and understanding of the Cretaceous-Tertiary petroleum systems and genetic distribution of oil families in the Persian Gulf. It also reveals the possible causes of exploration failures and hints for future hydrocarbon exploration potential.

Organic matter rich rocks are the main component of any petroleum system. Marine organic matter deposits form a major part of these rocks and are the source of most oil. Vertical and lateral heterogeneities in marine petroleum source rocks are widely observed and owed to the dynamics of deposition and preservation of marine organic matter. Such source rock heterogeneities add major challenges to hydrocarbon exploration and estimation of resources, therefore, quantification of source rock potential using numerical prediction tools can contribute significantly to reducing exploration risks and enhancing the accuracy of resource assessment.

We introduce here our innovative approach to modelling marine petroleum source rocks as part of an established forward stratigraphic modelling workflow. This enhanced workflow only requires minor additional input to a regular forward stratigraphic model in order to simulate marine source rocks deposition and preservation. Modelled source rock properties with this method include TOC, HI, thickness, net to gross, lithology, and other depositional environments properties allowing a sound source rock potential assessment.

Additionally, we assess uncertainty, sensitivity, and risk on source rock potential using an innovative response surface modelling approach which provides an efficient and effective way to understand the controls on any output property and quantify the associated risk.

To illustrate this new methodology, we will present the case of the Mesozoic Carson Basin offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada.

Any attempt at modelling natural phenomena includes a number of numerical assumptions on which we have little or no constraints. Basin and forward stratigraphic modelling are methodologies that aim at reproducing the history of sedimentary basins and their internal complexities. As are all deterministic models, these models are characterized by the none-uniqueness of their results. Meaning very different models can equally honor the calibration data. The traditional approach to such a problematic is a Monte-Carlo approach which requires running 100s or 1000s of simulations in order to capture the uncertainty and quantify the risk on an output of interest (e.g. Source rock maturity, charge, source rock presence, reservoir presence…). Such a large number of simulations requires days or weeks of computation and is thus not suitable for the operational needs of the industry.

In this presentation we will introduce an innovative approach for an efficient and effective sensitivity and risk analysis using response surface modelling. This method requires a small number of simulations, out of which a response surface can be constructed to mimic the behavior of the calculator. The predictivity of the response surface is checked with confirmation runs. The response surface can then be interrogated and producing thousands of results instantly for a thorough and quick sensitivity and risk analysis.

This method can be applied to basin and forward stratigraphic modelling and the analysis can be done on maps (whole model or per interval), along planned well paths (vertical or deviated), and in scalar mode.